Friday, April 11, 2014

Is the Market TOP Getting Put In?

Picking a market "Top" or "Bottom" is "fool's play". But, knowing when to be cautious is a valuable trading tool. Always try and keep your powder dry when there are serious warning signals. 

Always remember that putting a "Top" in is a process. Sometimes you won't realize it's in until it's to late. Thanks to hope and greed.

If you have followed me for longer than a cup of coffee. You know I use the SPXEW and SMA20 as a Bull vs. Bear Indicator. Simple and effective. Price above SMA20 Bullish, below Bearish.

Currently study the SPXEW closely. There are many clues that this really is a market that's about to rollover hard.

Direction of SMA20, size of candles etc, etc.

Be very careful right here and right now if taking on Long positions.

SPXEW and SMA20 as an Indicator. 



Saturday, April 5, 2014

Why Do Stocks Breakout?

I have always been intrigued about why certain things happen. Why did the racehorse go off at 99-1 odds and win the race by three lengths? How can a 20 pt. underdog win a sporting event outright?

I love to do "post-mortem" handicapping. Were there any signals that this was going to happen? Or, simply an indication there was a scintilla of a probability it would happen?

Any trader/investor wants an edge. Having an edge is key to profits.

This weekend I came across SNX off the scan for recent All-Time Highs.  It jumped off the page with a very nice UP move, with volume.

So what was so special about SNX before the move? News, Earnings Report, New Acquisition any one of the usual B.S. that can momentarily effect price.

Here is the Daily Candlestick Chart:












Nothing special prior to the move. You can check your RSI, CCI, PPO, A/D Line, MACD, Stoch., Force Index, Wilder this and Williams that, fast oscillators and slow ones. Were the signals clearly there? Inconclusive.

Here is the Daily ATR Point and Figure Chart (PnF):
























The answer is clearly it's all about your ENTRY. Timing matters. Only Price pays. You don't need all the lagging indicators other than to sooth your emotions and lack of confidence.

Getting in at the break above 41.14 & holding on was the key. Never has fired off a Sell Signal. Just ride and enjoy. 

Being patient, holding on until you get the sell signal (if it triggers), paid off BIG with the recent run up.

Bottom line, it's all about Price, Entry, Timing, Management of the trade and some luck.  Not the indicators.

Keep it simple silly! (KISS).  Let your profits run. Always keep your losers small, so you live to fight another day!

Cheers.










Saturday, March 22, 2014

"Short Squeeze"

Heading into final full trading week of March 2014. Here is a shock list of short squeeze candidates  that I will be tracking and trading next week.

Simply (6) equities that popped up on my recent "Short Squeeze" scan. Thank you Finviz.com for the FREE and versatile  screener. I encourage you to check Finviz out. Get in there and "kick some tires".

GPRE
GTAT
CAR
PVA
INVN
CRK

Always complete your own due diligence.

See you on the Stocktwits stream all next week. 

Make it a good weekend!

Sunday, January 26, 2014

Risk vs. Reward in AAPL

Many questions regarding APPLE (AAPL) heading into ER.

I think the Daily Chart sets up very nicely for the next impulse upward. The beginning of the trading week may be "bumpy". Many will be watching the price action around the SMA50 & praying for a bounce.

I will be looking for price to close above the EMA8 (Black dashed), on Monday or Tuesday as a Bullish signal.

The key for me will be the ascending Trend Line (Green). If that breaks to the downside and confirms. I will be out. 

I see an explosive volatility move setting up very nicely here. This is determined by the constriction of the moving averages. Much Like a Bollinger Band "Squeeze".

Low volatility begets high volatility. It's coming soon! Watch for the direction that the Moving Averages expand to.

Look to the left to be right. The pullbacks have been very generous with Bullish returns. 

The downside Risk  is minimal if the Trend Line et al. hold. Upside Reward is very nice here. 

It's our job to always mange risk.

Best of trading to you! See you in the trenches next week.

AAPL Daily Chart:

Cheers!

Tuesday, December 31, 2013

Healthy Trader is a Better Investor

I have an end of year gift to share. No sales pitch or B.S.  Just results. This will work for you.

It's worked for me. I have lost 54 pounds and I have not had to de-load on any Stonglifts 5x5.  Yes, I started with an empty barbell. Just follow the plan. Download the FREE worksheet & track your progress.

Yes, this works for females too!

I am 57 years old. I don't want to hear your fricken excuses. Get in there, pick the weight up. Push or pull it. You will feel great!

You will feel great after 12 short weeks. Stick with it. Be consistent. Don't do any "accessory work". Just do the prescribed workouts! Take the rest between sets and take in some H2O.

The Workout: (Stonglifts 5x5):

http://stronglifts.com/stronglifts-5x5-beginner-strength-training-program/

The Diet:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VZuuQ_yF_YU

You do not need all the supplements & protein B.S. Give this a chance. It works!

Happy New Year in 2014.


Wednesday, December 25, 2013

Is the Bottom In?

Here is a list of stocks working out of confirmed bottoms, with solid volume:

DHI, TRO, KBH, AGNC, UN, ARO, XEL, BSMX, GSS, PAAS, TE, SNH, NUV & ENB.

I like to locate overlooked stocks that may be consolidating & demonstrating solid volume.

I noted DHI & KBH on this list. 

Along with my recent research I have noticed Home Builders have been showing signs of life again on several scans I run daily. I think they look great heading into the New Year.

A nice quick check is to utilize the ETF for Home Builders XHB.

Here are some additional ideas for this Sector: 

LEN, PHM, SPF, BZH, TOL, TPH ,WY.

It's important to do your own due diligence. But, I look for Home Builders to be on the move, at least for the next couple of months.

Thank you for your support, comments and ideas. Much respect to all.

Merry Christmas and a very happy New Year in 2014.

Cheers!



Saturday, November 30, 2013

GE Early Signal For SPY???

I have tracked GE for many years and it has proven time and time again to be a potential Early Indicator for Price Movement in the SPY.

Recently, there has been some outstanding posts by chartist, I have great respect for on Stocktwits. Indicating SPY approaching,
nearing or already in a potential Reversal Zone. Let's face it. It's very extended.

Recently, a plethora of Bearish candlesticks have popped up on the chart as Price has pulled back below the EMA21. GE lost the EMA21 and the EMA grouping I use are constricting, as they roll over as a group. To me this signals a volatility move on the horizon.

I suggest watching SPY closely moving forward into first couple of weeks of Dec. 2013 closely.



GE vs. SPY Daily Chart:
GE Daily Chart: